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Rops vs KPV Kokkola — Suomen Cup 2018

Rops
Rops
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
KPV Kokkola
KPV Kokkolaadvanced
3/30/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Quarter-finalsRovaniemen Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rops8%
×Draw17%
KPV Kokkola75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rops
0.60
KPV Kokkola
2.26

KPV Kokkola creates 277% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rops
0.91
KPV Kokkola
2.43

allows per match

Rops
2.09
KPV Kokkola
0.29

finishing

Rops+0.00on par
KPV Kokkola+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

KPV Kokkola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–215%
0–311%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rops or draw
25%
Rops or KPV Kokkola
83%
Draw or KPV Kokkola
92%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+
2%
KPV Kokkola wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals
45%
Rops 2+ goals
12%
Rops 3+ goals
2%
KPV Kokkola 1+ goals
89%
KPV Kokkola 2+ goals
66%
KPV Kokkola 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)
10%
KPV Kokkola (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

KPV Kokkola away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 0.91 + KPV Kokkola defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.60

KPV Kokkola attack 2.43 + Rops defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Rops scores more
8%
level
17%
KPV Kokkola scores more
75%

KPV Kokkola at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "KPV Kokkola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rops vs KPV Kokkola

KPV Kokkola beat Rops 2-1 in Suomen Cup on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä in Rovaniemi.