Rops 4–1 Klubi-04: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Rops

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Klubi-04

L. Kuittinen 84', 60'

G. Acheampong 66'

O. Kemppainen 30'

S. Anini Jr 34'

8/14/2021

Ykkönen · Round 10Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rops47%

×Draw23%

Klubi-0430%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RopsExpected goals in this matchKlubi-04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.46

Rops

1.86

Klubi-04

1.46

Rops creates 27% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 34 away

1.98

creates per match

1.50

1.42

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Rops

1.98

Klubi-04

1.50

allows per match

Rops

1.42

Klubi-04

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rops+0.00on par

Klubi-04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

Klubi-04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Rops or draw

70%

Rops or Klubi-04

77%

Draw or Klubi-04

53%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+

26%

Klubi-04 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals

84%

Rops 2+ goals

55%

Rops 3+ goals

28%

Klubi-04 1+ goals

77%

Klubi-04 2+ goals

43%

Klubi-04 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)

61%

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.42 · 48 matches

Klubi-04 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 1.98 + Klubi-04 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.86

Klubi-04 attack 1.50 + Rops defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rops scores more

47%

level

23%

Klubi-04 scores more

30%

Rops at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rops will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

34'

60'

61'

66'

70'

K. Meriluoto← T. Jäntti

70'

M. Beuker← J. Lehtiranta

72'

D. Lutumba-Pitah← G. Acheampong

72'

S. Ala-Iso← V. Saarikoski

77'

M. Ylitolva← J. Niska

78'

R. Azodo← A. Sadiku

84'

L. Kuittinen

86'

J. Lahdenmäki← Rodrigo Antunes

Rops

Klubi-04

45

Henriksso

67

Mensah

53

Vehkonen

62

▼

Lehtirant

63

Wallius

54

▼

Jäntti

64

Heiskanen

41

⚽

Jr

56

Terho

73

▼

Cukici

43

▼

Sadiku

30

Vetri

22

▼

Antunes

3

▼

Niska

2

⚽

Kemppaine

4

Adams

17

⚽2

Kuittinen

33

⚽

▼

Acheampon

8

▼

6

18

20

Manager: M. Mannila

72'▲D. Lutumba-Pitah←▼G. Acheampong

72'▲S. Ala-Iso←▼V. Saarikoski

77'▲M. Ylitolva←▼J. Niska

86'▲J. Lahdenmäki←▼Rodrigo Antunes

Rops substitutes

13Lutumba-Pitah24Ala-Iso15Ylitolva19Lahdenmäki26Kantola35Korhonen

Manager: M. Väyrynen

61'▲D. Gaucho←▼D. Cukici

70'▲K. Meriluoto←▼T. Jäntti

70'▲M. Beuker←▼J. Lehtiranta

78'▲R. Azodo←▼A. Sadiku

Klubi-04 substitutes

71Gaucho42Meriluoto48Beuker46Azodo52James65Aaltonen78Ahlblad

Rops 4 – 1 Klubi-04

Rops beat Klubi-04 4-1 in Ykkönen on August 14, 2021.

Goals: O. Kemppainen (30'), S. Anini Jr (34'), L. Kuittinen (60', 84'), G. Acheampong (66').

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä in Rovaniemi.

Rops vs Klubi-04 — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Rops 4 – 1 Klubi-04