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Rops vs HIFK Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

Rops
Rops
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
3/28/2021Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Play-off RoundRovaniemen Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rops14%
×Draw17%
HIFK Helsinki69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rops
1.04
HIFK Helsinki
2.50

HIFK Helsinki creates 140% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

creates per match

Rops
0.91
HIFK Helsinki
2.91

allows per match

Rops
2.09
HIFK Helsinki
1.17

finishing

Rops+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rops or draw
31%
Rops or HIFK Helsinki
83%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
86%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+
5%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals
65%
Rops 2+ goals
28%
Rops 3+ goals
9%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
92%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
71%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)
17%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 2.91, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 0.91 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

HIFK Helsinki attack 2.91 + Rops defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rops scores more
14%
level
17%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
69%

HIFK Helsinki at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "HIFK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Rops 0–1 HIFK Helsinki

HIFK Helsinki beat Rops 1-0 in Suomen Cup on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä in Rovaniemi.