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Rops vs FC Komeetat — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

Rops
Rops
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Komeetat
FC Komeetat
5/14/2022Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 3Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rops70%
×Draw17%
FC Komeetat12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rops
2.43
FC Komeetat
0.91

Rops creates 167% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rops
2.05
FC Komeetat
0.64

allows per match

Rops
1.18
FC Komeetat
2.82

finishing

Rops+0.00on par
FC Komeetat+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

FC Komeetat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Rops or draw
88%
Rops or FC Komeetat
83%
Draw or FC Komeetat
30%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+
48%
FC Komeetat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals
91%
Rops 2+ goals
69%
Rops 3+ goals
43%
FC Komeetat 1+ goals
60%
FC Komeetat 2+ goals
23%
FC Komeetat 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)
85%
FC Komeetat (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

FC Komeetat away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 2.05 + FC Komeetat defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.43

FC Komeetat attack 0.64 + Rops defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Rops scores more
70%
level
17%
FC Komeetat scores more
12%

Rops at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Rops will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: Rops 3–0 FC Komeetat

Rops beat FC Komeetat 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä in Rovaniemi.