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RoPS II vs VPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

RoPS II
RoPS II
FT
7 – 1
VPS II
VPS II
8/26/2019Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 17Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä (Rovaniemi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

RoPS II57%
×Draw20%
VPS II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RoPS II
2.38
VPS II
1.48

RoPS II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 25 away

creates per match

RoPS II
2.35
VPS II
1.64

allows per match

RoPS II
1.32
VPS II
2.40

finishing

RoPS II+0.00on par
VPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RoPS II ↓

VPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

RoPS II or draw
77%
RoPS II or VPS II
80%
Draw or VPS II
43%

Winning margin

RoPS II wins by 2+
36%
VPS II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

RoPS II 1+ goals
91%
RoPS II 2+ goals
68%
RoPS II 3+ goals
42%
VPS II 1+ goals
77%
VPS II 2+ goals
43%
VPS II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

RoPS II (draw refunded)
71%
VPS II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RoPS II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

VPS II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RoPS II attack 2.35 + VPS II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.38

VPS II attack 1.64 + RoPS II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

RoPS II scores more
57%
level
20%
VPS II scores more
23%

RoPS II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "RoPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RoPS II vs VPS II

RoPS II beat VPS II 7-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 26, 2019.

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä (Rovaniemi).