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RoPS II vs Vaajakoski — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

RoPS II
RoPS II
FT
2 – 2
Vaajakoski
Vaajakoski
8/10/2019Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 15Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä (Rovaniemi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

RoPS II49%
×Draw22%
Vaajakoski29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RoPS II
1.94
Vaajakoski
1.47

RoPS II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 58 away

creates per match

RoPS II
2.35
Vaajakoski
1.62

allows per match

RoPS II
1.32
Vaajakoski
1.53

finishing

RoPS II+0.00on par
Vaajakoski+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RoPS II ↓

Vaajakoski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

RoPS II or draw
71%
RoPS II or Vaajakoski
78%
Draw or Vaajakoski
51%

Winning margin

RoPS II wins by 2+
27%
Vaajakoski wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

RoPS II 1+ goals
86%
RoPS II 2+ goals
58%
RoPS II 3+ goals
30%
Vaajakoski 1+ goals
77%
Vaajakoski 2+ goals
43%
Vaajakoski 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

RoPS II (draw refunded)
62%
Vaajakoski (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RoPS II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Vaajakoski away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RoPS II attack 2.35 + Vaajakoski defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.94

Vaajakoski attack 1.62 + RoPS II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

RoPS II scores more
49%
level
22%
Vaajakoski scores more
29%

RoPS II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "RoPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: RoPS II 2–2 Vaajakoski

RoPS II and Vaajakoski drew 2-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä (Rovaniemi).