RoPS II 3–4 SJK Akatemia: Result & Stats

RoPS II

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 4

SJK Akatemia

7/5/2021

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 6Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

RoPS II39%

×Draw22%

SJK Akatemia39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RoPS IIExpected goals in this matchSJK Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.75

RoPS II

1.74

SJK Akatemia

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

2.35

creates per match

2.18

1.32

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

RoPS II

2.35

SJK Akatemia

2.18

allows per match

RoPS II

1.32

SJK Akatemia

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RoPS II+0.00on par

SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RoPS II ↓

SJK Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

RoPS II or draw

61%

RoPS II or SJK Akatemia

78%

Draw or SJK Akatemia

61%

Winning margin

RoPS II wins by 2+

20%

SJK Akatemia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

RoPS II 1+ goals

82%

RoPS II 2+ goals

52%

RoPS II 3+ goals

25%

SJK Akatemia 1+ goals

83%

SJK Akatemia 2+ goals

52%

SJK Akatemia 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

RoPS II (draw refunded)

50%

SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RoPS II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RoPS II attack 2.35 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.74

SJK Akatemia attack 2.18 + RoPS II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

RoPS II scores more

39%

level

22%

SJK Akatemia scores more

39%

RoPS II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "RoPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff