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RoPS II vs PK-37 — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

RoPS II
RoPS II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
PK-37
PK-37
6/2/2019Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 6Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä (Rovaniemi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

RoPS II66%
×Draw19%
PK-3716%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RoPS II
2.35
PK-37
1.07

RoPS II creates 120% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

creates per match

RoPS II
2.35
PK-37
0.82

allows per match

RoPS II
1.32
PK-37
2.36

finishing

RoPS II+0.00on par
PK-37+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RoPS II ↓

PK-37 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

RoPS II or draw
84%
RoPS II or PK-37
81%
Draw or PK-37
34%

Winning margin

RoPS II wins by 2+
43%
PK-37 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

RoPS II 1+ goals
90%
RoPS II 2+ goals
68%
RoPS II 3+ goals
41%
PK-37 1+ goals
66%
PK-37 2+ goals
29%
PK-37 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RoPS II (draw refunded)
80%
PK-37 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RoPS II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

PK-37 away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RoPS II attack 2.35 + PK-37 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.35

PK-37 attack 0.82 + RoPS II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

RoPS II scores more
66%
level
19%
PK-37 scores more
16%

RoPS II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "RoPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RoPS II vs PK-37

RoPS II and PK-37 drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on June 2, 2019.

The match was played at Rovaniemen Keskuskenttä (Rovaniemi).