Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rondonopolis EC vs Operário MT — Matogrossense 2 2024

Rondonopolis EC
Rondonopolis EC
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Operário MT
Operário MT
5/19/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Luthero Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rondonopolis EC52%
×Draw21%
Operário MT27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rondonopolis EC
2.13
Operário MT
1.48

Rondonopolis EC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rondonopolis EC
2.25
Operário MT
1.71

allows per match

Rondonopolis EC
1.25
Operário MT
2.00

finishing

Rondonopolis EC+0.00on par
Operário MT+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rondonopolis EC ↓

Operário MT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rondonopolis EC or draw
73%
Rondonopolis EC or Operário MT
79%
Draw or Operário MT
48%

Winning margin

Rondonopolis EC wins by 2+
31%
Operário MT wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rondonopolis EC 1+ goals
88%
Rondonopolis EC 2+ goals
63%
Rondonopolis EC 3+ goals
35%
Operário MT 1+ goals
77%
Operário MT 2+ goals
43%
Operário MT 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rondonopolis EC (draw refunded)
66%
Operário MT (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rondonopolis EC at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Operário MT away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rondonopolis EC attack 2.25 + Operário MT defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Operário MT attack 1.71 + Rondonopolis EC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rondonopolis EC scores more
52%
level
21%
Operário MT scores more
27%

Rondonopolis EC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rondonopolis EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matogrossense 2: Rondonopolis EC 3–3 Operário MT

Rondonopolis EC and Operário MT drew 3-3 in Matogrossense 2 on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Luthero Lopes in Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso.