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Rondonopolis EC vs Atlético Matogrossense — Matogrossense 2 2024

Rondonopolis EC
Rondonopolis EC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Matogrossense
Atlético Matogrossense
5/11/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Luthero Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rondonopolis EC72%
×Draw17%
Atlético Matogrossense11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rondonopolis EC
2.41
Atlético Matogrossense
0.84

Rondonopolis EC creates 187% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rondonopolis EC
2.25
Atlético Matogrossense
0.43

allows per match

Rondonopolis EC
1.25
Atlético Matogrossense
2.57

finishing

Rondonopolis EC+0.00on par
Atlético Matogrossense+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rondonopolis EC ↓

Atlético Matogrossense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rondonopolis EC or draw
89%
Rondonopolis EC or Atlético Matogrossense
83%
Draw or Atlético Matogrossense
28%

Winning margin

Rondonopolis EC wins by 2+
49%
Atlético Matogrossense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rondonopolis EC 1+ goals
91%
Rondonopolis EC 2+ goals
69%
Rondonopolis EC 3+ goals
43%
Atlético Matogrossense 1+ goals
57%
Atlético Matogrossense 2+ goals
21%
Atlético Matogrossense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rondonopolis EC (draw refunded)
86%
Atlético Matogrossense (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rondonopolis EC at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Atlético Matogrossense away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rondonopolis EC attack 2.25 + Atlético Matogrossense defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.41

Atlético Matogrossense attack 0.43 + Rondonopolis EC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Rondonopolis EC scores more
72%
level
17%
Atlético Matogrossense scores more
11%

Rondonopolis EC at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Rondonopolis EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matogrossense 2: Rondonopolis EC 2–0 Atlético Matogrossense

Rondonopolis EC beat Atlético Matogrossense 2-0 in Matogrossense 2 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Luthero Lopes in Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso.