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Rondonopolis EC vs Ação — Matogrossense 2 2024

Rondonopolis EC
Rondonopolis EC
FT
4 – 1
Ação
Ação
4/27/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Luthero Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rondonopolis EC47%
×Draw21%
Ação31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rondonopolis EC
2.04
Ação
1.63

Rondonopolis EC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rondonopolis EC
2.25
Ação
2.00

allows per match

Rondonopolis EC
1.25
Ação
1.83

finishing

Rondonopolis EC+0.00on par
Ação+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rondonopolis EC ↓

Ação →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Rondonopolis EC or draw
69%
Rondonopolis EC or Ação
79%
Draw or Ação
53%

Winning margin

Rondonopolis EC wins by 2+
27%
Ação wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rondonopolis EC 1+ goals
87%
Rondonopolis EC 2+ goals
60%
Rondonopolis EC 3+ goals
33%
Ação 1+ goals
80%
Ação 2+ goals
48%
Ação 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Rondonopolis EC (draw refunded)
60%
Ação (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rondonopolis EC at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Ação away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rondonopolis EC attack 2.25 + Ação defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Ação attack 2.00 + Rondonopolis EC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rondonopolis EC scores more
47%
level
21%
Ação scores more
31%

Rondonopolis EC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rondonopolis EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rondonopolis EC vs Ação

Rondonopolis EC beat Ação 4-1 in Matogrossense 2 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Engenheiro Luthero Lopes in Rondonópolis, Mato Grosso.