Rommen 1–1 Grorud II: Result & Stats

Rommen

FT

1 – 1

Grorud II

9/26/2021

3. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 8Rommensletta kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rommen39%

×Draw21%

Grorud II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RommenExpected goals in this matchGrorud II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.02

Rommen

1.98

Grorud II

2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 33 away

1.50

creates per match

1.88

2.17

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Rommen

1.50

Grorud II

1.88

allows per match

Rommen

2.17

Grorud II

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rommen+0.00on par

Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rommen ↓

Grorud II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Rommen or draw

60%

Rommen or Grorud II

79%

Draw or Grorud II

61%

Winning margin

Rommen wins by 2+

21%

Grorud II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rommen 1+ goals

86%

Rommen 2+ goals

59%

Rommen 3+ goals

31%

Grorud II 1+ goals

87%

Grorud II 2+ goals

60%

Grorud II 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Rommen (draw refunded)

49%

Grorud II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rommen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rommen attack 1.50 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.98

Grorud II attack 1.88 + Rommen defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rommen scores more

39%

level

21%

Grorud II scores more

40%

Grorud II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grorud II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff