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Rommen vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Rommen
Rommen
CANC
14:00
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
10/10/20203. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 10Rommensletta kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rommen29%
×Draw21%
Gjelleråsen50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rommen
1.63
Gjelleråsen
2.19

Gjelleråsen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

creates per match

Rommen
1.50
Gjelleråsen
2.20

allows per match

Rommen
2.17
Gjelleråsen
1.75

finishing

Rommen+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rommen ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Rommen or draw
50%
Rommen or Gjelleråsen
79%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
71%

Winning margin

Rommen wins by 2+
14%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Rommen 1+ goals
80%
Rommen 2+ goals
48%
Rommen 3+ goals
22%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
89%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
64%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Rommen (draw refunded)
36%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rommen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rommen attack 1.50 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Gjelleråsen attack 2.20 + Rommen defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rommen scores more
29%
level
21%
Gjelleråsen scores more
50%

Gjelleråsen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rommen face Gjelleråsen (3. Division - Girone 1)

3. Division - Girone 1 returns with Rommen hosting Gjelleråsen. Match starts October 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rommen host Gjelleråsen at Rommensletta kunstgress.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.