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Romania W vs Albania W — Friendlies Women 2026

Romania W
Romania W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Albania W
Albania W
C. Carp 43'
M. Doci 90+2'
V. Troka 10'
12/3/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Stadionul Eugen Popescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Romania W39%
×Draw29%
Albania W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Romania W
1.17
Albania W
1.04

Romania W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Romania W
1.33
Albania W
0.75

allows per match

Romania W
1.33
Albania W
1.00

finishing

Romania W+0.00on par
Albania W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania W ↓

Albania W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Romania W or draw
68%
Romania W or Albania W
71%
Draw or Albania W
61%

Winning margin

Romania W wins by 2+
16%
Albania W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Romania W 1+ goals
69%
Romania W 2+ goals
33%
Romania W 3+ goals
11%
Albania W 1+ goals
65%
Albania W 2+ goals
28%
Albania W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Romania W (draw refunded)
55%
Albania W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Albania W away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania W attack 1.33 + Albania W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Albania W attack 0.75 + Romania W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Romania W scores more
39%
level
29%
Albania W scores more
32%

Romania W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Romania W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
V. Troka
29'
43'
C. Carp
45+1'
46'
M. Metalla← M. Metalla
46'
A. Banuta← A. Banuta
46'
O. Iordachiusi← O. Iordachiusi
46'
M. Tatar← M. Tatar
46'
M. Ficzay← M. Ficzay
57'
R. Gashi← R. Gashi
60'
68'
C. Marcu← A. M. Vladulescu
68'
K. Hoxhaj← K. Hoxhaj
68'
F. Kuqi← F. Kuqi
82'
82'
90+2'
M. Doci

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Romania W vs Albania W

Albania W beat Romania W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on December 3, 2024.

Goals: V. Troka (10'), C. Carp (43'), M. Doci (90+2').

The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu in Târgovişte.