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Romania vs Serbia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Romania
Romania
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Serbia
Serbia
10/14/2018UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 4Arena Națională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Romania54%
×Draw26%
Serbia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Romania
1.54
Serbia
0.83

Romania creates 86% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Romania
1.83
Serbia
1.00

allows per match

Romania
0.67
Serbia
1.25

finishing

Romania+0.00on par
Serbia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Serbia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Romania or draw
80%
Romania or Serbia
74%
Draw or Serbia
46%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+
28%
Serbia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals
79%
Romania 2+ goals
45%
Romania 3+ goals
20%
Serbia 1+ goals
56%
Serbia 2+ goals
20%
Serbia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)
73%
Serbia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Serbia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.83 + Serbia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Serbia attack 1.00 + Romania defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Romania scores more
54%
level
26%
Serbia scores more
20%

Romania at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
Gabriel Tamaş
45'
Alexandru Maxim
45'
Dušan TadićMissed penalty
45'
Ionuț Nedelcearu← Denis Drăguş
63'
Sergej Milinković-Savić← Mijat Gaćinović
65'
Milan Rodić
70'
Răzvan Marin
71'
Dorin Rotariu← Alexandru Maxim
77'
Nemanja Miletić← Milan Rodić
79'
Aleksandar Mitrović
80'
Claudiu Keșerü← Marius George Țucudean
90'
Nikola Milenković

Possession

34%Romania

Shots

5Romania

Statistics

RomaniaSerbia
Overview
34%Possession66%
5Total Shots10
3Corners11
9Fouls16
Shots
5Total Shots10
5On Target3
0Off Target7
Passing
34%Possession66%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls16
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
0Offsides5

Match Recap: Romania vs Serbia

Romania and Serbia drew 0-0 in UEFA Nations League on October 14, 2018.

Serbia controlled possession (66%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Arena Națională in Bucharest.