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Romania vs Northern Ireland — Friendlies 2026

Romania
Romania
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
3/22/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Romania44%
×Draw26%
Northern Ireland30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Romania
1.49
Northern Ireland
1.18

Romania creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Romania
1.38
Northern Ireland
1.13

allows per match

Romania
1.23
Northern Ireland
1.60

finishing

Romania+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Romania or draw
70%
Romania or Northern Ireland
74%
Draw or Northern Ireland
56%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+
22%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals
77%
Romania 2+ goals
44%
Romania 3+ goals
19%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
69%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
33%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)
60%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.38 + Northern Ireland defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Northern Ireland attack 1.13 + Romania defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Romania scores more
44%
level
26%
Northern Ireland scores more
30%

Romania at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Romania 1–1 Northern Ireland

Romania and Northern Ireland drew 1-1 in Friendlies on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.