Romania 2–1 Moldova: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Romania

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Moldova

Ianis Hagi 44'

Louis Munteanu 12'

Ionuț Radu 38' (OG)

10/9/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1National Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Romania53%

×Draw25%

Moldova22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchMoldova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.95

Romania

1.60

Moldova

0.95

Romania creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

1.38

creates per match

0.67

1.23

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Romania

1.38

Moldova

0.67

allows per match

Romania

1.23

Moldova

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Moldova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Moldova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Romania or draw

78%

Romania or Moldova

75%

Draw or Moldova

47%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

28%

Moldova wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

80%

Romania 2+ goals

47%

Romania 3+ goals

22%

Moldova 1+ goals

61%

Moldova 2+ goals

25%

Moldova 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

70%

Moldova (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Moldova away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.38 + Moldova defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Moldova attack 0.67 + Romania defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Romania scores more

53%

level

25%

Moldova scores more

22%

Romania at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Olimpiu Moruțan

Romania · F

8.9

Match Events

12'

Louis Munteanu↳ Olimpiu Moruțan

38'

Ionuț RaduOwn goal

44'

Ianis Hagi↳ Olimpiu Moruțan

46'

Kevin Ciubotaru← Raul Opruț

46'

Alexandru Boiciuc← Vitalie Damașcan

46'

Nikita Motpan← Virgiliu Postolachi

46'

Mihail Gherasimencov← Daniel Dumbravanu

55'

Ştefan Bodişteanu← Sergiu Perciun

58'

David Miculescu← Louis Munteanu

58'

Dennis Man← Olimpiu Moruțan

58'

Alexandru Dobre← Ștefan Baiaram

63'

Victor Bogaciuc← Ion Borș

70'

Cătălin Cîrjan← Ianis Hagi

78'

Sergiu Plătică← Vadim Rață

89'

Florin Tănase← Vlad Dragomir

90+3'

Artur Crăciun

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RomaniaMoldova

Overview

68%Possession32%

12Total Shots5

7Corners3

12Fouls5

Shots

12Total Shots5

7On Target0

3Off Target2

2Blocked3

11Inside Box4

1Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

607Total Passes278

543Accurate Passes220

89%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls5

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Friendlies: Romania 2–1 Moldova

Romania beat Moldova 2-1 in Friendlies on October 9, 2025.

Goals: Louis Munteanu (12'), Ionuț Radu (38' o.g.), Ianis Hagi (44').

Romania controlled possession (68%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at National Arena in Bucharest.

Romania vs Moldova — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Friendlies: Romania 2–1 Moldova