Romania 1–0 Malta: Result & Stats

Romania

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malta

G. Puşcaş 47'

9/8/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 6Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Romania71%

×Draw19%

Malta10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchMalta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.65

Romania

2.11

Malta

0.65

Romania creates 225% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

0.00

1.29

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Romania

1.43

Malta

0.00

allows per match

Romania

1.29

Malta

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Malta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Malta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Romania or draw

90%

Romania or Malta

81%

Draw or Malta

29%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

46%

Malta wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

88%

Romania 2+ goals

62%

Romania 3+ goals

35%

Malta 1+ goals

48%

Malta 2+ goals

14%

Malta 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

87%

Malta (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Malta away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.43 + Malta defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.11

Malta attack 0.00 + Romania defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Romania scores more

71%

level

19%

Malta scores more

10%

Romania at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

I. Hagi

Romania · M

7.9

Match Events

42'

47'

59'

72'

72'

77'

81'

86'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RomaniaMalta

Overview

63%Possession37%

22Total Shots8

12Corners3

15Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots8

6On Target2

11Off Target2

5Blocked4

13Inside Box5

9Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

474Total Passes277

380Accurate Passes189

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3

Euro Championship: Romania 1–0 Malta

Romania beat Malta 1-0 in Euro Championship on September 8, 2019.

Goals: G. Puşcaş (47').

Romania controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oană in Ploieşti.

Romania vs Malta — Euro Championship 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Euro Championship: Romania 1–0 Malta