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Romania vs Lithuania — UEFA Nations League 2018

Romania
Romania
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lithuania
Lithuania
Nicolae Stanciu 65'
Claudiu Keșerü 47'
George Pușcaș 7'
11/17/2018UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 5Stadionul Ilie Oana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Romania65%
×Draw22%
Lithuania13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Romania
1.80
Lithuania
0.65

Romania creates 177% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Romania
1.83
Lithuania
0.62

allows per match

Romania
0.67
Lithuania
1.77

finishing

Romania+0.00on par
Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Lithuania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Romania or draw
87%
Romania or Lithuania
78%
Draw or Lithuania
35%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+
38%
Lithuania wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals
83%
Romania 2+ goals
54%
Romania 3+ goals
27%
Lithuania 1+ goals
48%
Lithuania 2+ goals
14%
Lithuania 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)
83%
Lithuania (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.83 + Lithuania defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.80

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Romania defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Romania scores more
65%
level
22%
Lithuania scores more
13%

Romania at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
George Pușcaș↳ Alexandru Chipciu
25'
Nicușor Bancu
35'
George Pușcaș
44'
Arvydas Novikovas
47'
Claudiu Keșerü
65'
Nicolae Stanciu
65'
Ciprian Deac← Alexandru Chipciu
65'
Vykintas Slivka← Domantas Simkus
68'
Ianis Hagi← Claudiu Keșerü
72'
Alexandru Cicâldău← Nicolae Stanciu
74'
Darvydas Šernas← Fedor Černych
78'
Edvinas Girdvainis
80'
Donatas Kazlauskas← Deimantas Petravičius
81'
Paul Anton
82'
Ciprian Deac
88'
Arvydas Novikovas
88'
Arvydas Novikovas

Possession

59%Romania

Shots

12Romania

Statistics

RomaniaLithuania
Overview
59%Possession41%
12Total Shots3
1Corners3
15Fouls18
Shots
12Total Shots3
7On Target0
5Off Target3
Passing
59%Possession41%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls18
4Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

UEFA Nations League: Romania 3–0 Lithuania

Romania beat Lithuania 3-0 in UEFA Nations League on November 17, 2018.

Goals: George Pușcaș (7'), Claudiu Keșerü (47'), Nicolae Stanciu (65').

Romania controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stadionul Ilie Oana in Ploiesti.