Romania 4–1 Faroe Islands: Result & Stats

Romania

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Faroe Islands

G. Puşcaş 63'

C. Keșerü 32', 29'

C. Deac 26'

V. Davidsen 40' (pen)

3/26/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 2Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Romania72%

×Draw17%

Faroe Islands11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchFaroe Islands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.84

Romania

2.42

Faroe Islands

0.84

Romania creates 188% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

0.40

1.29

allows per match

3.40

creates per match

Romania

1.43

Faroe Islands

0.40

allows per match

Romania

1.29

Faroe Islands

3.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Faroe Islands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Romania or draw

89%

Romania or Faroe Islands

83%

Draw or Faroe Islands

28%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

49%

Faroe Islands wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

91%

Romania 2+ goals

69%

Romania 3+ goals

43%

Faroe Islands 1+ goals

57%

Faroe Islands 2+ goals

21%

Faroe Islands 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

86%

Faroe Islands (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.43 + Faroe Islands defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.42

Faroe Islands attack 0.40 + Romania defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Romania scores more

72%

level

17%

Faroe Islands scores more

11%

Romania at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

C. Keșerü

Romania · F

8.9

Match Events

15'

Rene Joensen

16'

Nicolae Stanciu

26'

C. Deac↳ C. Keșerü

29'

R. Baldvinsson← H. Vatnsdal

29'

C. Keșerü

32'

C. Keșerü↳ D. Grigore

39'

Cosmin Moți

40'

V. DavidsenPenalty

46'

I. Hagi← R. Benzar

47'

Alexandru Chipciu

63'

G. Puşcaş↳ A. Chipciu

67'

Á. Frederiksberg← K. í Bartalsstovu

69'

A. Cicâldău← C. Keșerü

77'

S. Vatnhamar← H. Hansson

78'

82'

85'

86'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RomaniaFaroe

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots8

5Corners3

15Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots8

8On Target4

6Off Target4

4Blocked0

12Inside Box6

6Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

586Total Passes353

514Accurate Passes286

88%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1