Romania 0–3 Canada: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Romania

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Canada

Niko Sigur 77'

Ali Ahmed 22'

Jonathan David 11'

9/5/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1National Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Romania30%

×Draw26%

Canada44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchCanada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.45

Romania

1.15

Canada

1.45

Canada creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.38

creates per match

1.67

1.23

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Romania

1.38

Canada

1.67

allows per match

Romania

1.23

Canada

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Canada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Canada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Romania or draw

56%

Romania or Canada

74%

Draw or Canada

70%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

12%

Canada wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

68%

Romania 2+ goals

32%

Romania 3+ goals

11%

Canada 1+ goals

77%

Canada 2+ goals

42%

Canada 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

41%

Canada (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Canada away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.38 + Canada defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

Canada attack 1.67 + Romania defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Romania scores more

30%

level

26%

Canada scores more

44%

Canada at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Canada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Ali Ahmed

Canada · M

9.2

Match Events

-5'

Ismael Koné

11'

Jonathan David↳ Ali Ahmed

22'

43'

51'

59'

61'

Mihai Popescu← Andrei Burcă

61'

Alexandru Chipciu← Nicușor Bancu

62'

Florin Tănase← Nicolae Stanciu

64'

Nathan-Dylan Saliba← Ismael Koné

64'

Jayden Nelson← Ali Ahmed

74'

Alexandru Mitriță← Dennis Man

74'

David Miculescu← Denis Drăguş

77'

Niko Sigur↳ Tani Oluwaseyi

77'

Promise David← Tajon Buchanan

79'

Junior Hoilett← Jonathan David

81'

Florin Tănase

82'

Joel Waterman← Luc De Fougerolles

82'

Zorhan Bassong← Tani Oluwaseyi

85'

Deian Sorescu← Andrei Rațiu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RomaniaCanada

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots16

3Corners4

14Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots16

2On Target8

9Off Target4

0Blocked4

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box9

Passing

60%Possession40%

470Total Passes311

401Accurate Passes244

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2