Romania 0–0 Bulgaria: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Romania

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bulgaria

6/4/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Stadionul Steaua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Romania45%

×Draw27%

Bulgaria28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchBulgaria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.02

Romania

1.39

Bulgaria

1.02

Romania creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.38

creates per match

0.80

1.23

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Romania

1.38

Bulgaria

0.80

allows per match

Romania

1.23

Bulgaria

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Bulgaria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Bulgaria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Romania or draw

72%

Romania or Bulgaria

73%

Draw or Bulgaria

55%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

22%

Bulgaria wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

75%

Romania 2+ goals

40%

Romania 3+ goals

16%

Bulgaria 1+ goals

64%

Bulgaria 2+ goals

27%

Bulgaria 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

62%

Bulgaria (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Bulgaria away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.38 + Bulgaria defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bulgaria attack 0.80 + Romania defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Romania scores more

45%

level

27%

Bulgaria scores more

28%

Romania at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Marius Marin

61'

I. Hagi← M. Marin

61'

F. Coman← V. Mihăilă

61'

D. Bîrligea← D. Drăguș

69'

I. Nedelcearu← A. Rus

69'

V. Mogoș← N. Bancu

71'

Vasil Panayotov

71'

R. Kirilov← K. Despodov

71'

72'

77'

82'

82'

S. Yusein← V. Panayotov

90'

S. Petrov← Z. Atanasov

Possession

Shots

Statistics

RomaniaBulgaria

Overview

57%Possession43%

9Total Shots6

5Corners5

16Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots6

2On Target4

3Off Target2

4Blocked0

Passing

57%Possession43%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0

Friendlies: Romania 0–0 Bulgaria

Romania and Bulgaria drew 0-0 in Friendlies on June 4, 2024.

Romania controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadionul Steaua in București.

Romania vs Bulgaria — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Friendlies: Romania 0–0 Bulgaria