Romania U21 1–0 Finland U21: Result & Stats

Romania U21

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Finland U21

M. Ilie 90+8'

10/17/2023

League #850 · Group Stage - 8Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Romania U2156%

×Draw26%

Finland U2118%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Romania U21Expected goals in this matchFinland U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.71

Romania U21

1.50

Finland U21

0.71

Romania U21 creates 111% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

0.75

0.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Romania U21

1.00

Finland U21

0.75

allows per match

Romania U21

0.67

Finland U21

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania U21+0.00on par

Finland U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania U21 ↓

Finland U21 →

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Romania U21 or draw

82%

Romania U21 or Finland U21

74%

Draw or Finland U21

44%

Winning margin

Romania U21 wins by 2+

29%

Finland U21 wins by 2+

Team goals

Romania U21 1+ goals

78%

Romania U21 2+ goals

44%

Romania U21 3+ goals

19%

Finland U21 1+ goals

51%

Finland U21 2+ goals

16%

Finland U21 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Romania U21 (draw refunded)

76%

Finland U21 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Romania U21 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Finland U21 away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Romania U21 attack 1.00 + Finland U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Finland U21 attack 0.75 + Romania U21 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Romania U21 scores more

56%

level

26%

Finland U21 scores more

18%

Romania U21 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Romania U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

V. Koski

38'

L. Walta

47'

C. Vulturar

54'

A. Mazilu← Ș. Baiaram

60'

N. Pyyhtia

67'

M. Ylitolva← J. Talvitie

73'

75'

78'

78'

80'

R. Jansson← N. Pyyhtiä

86'

R. Burnete← C. Grameni

86'

A. Sadiku← O. Liimatta

86'

A. Markhiev← L. Walta

87'

90'

90'

90+9'

90+9'

90+8'

M. Ilie↳ R. Ilie

Romania

Finland

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Pancu

54'▲A. Mazilu←▼Ș. Baiaram

73'▲R. Ilie←▼O. Popescu

86'▲R. Burnete←▼C. Grameni

Romania U21 substitutes

7Mazilu19Ilie14Burnete20Pănoiu13Mihai5Paşcalău21Oroian22Buta12Hindrich

Manager: M. Lehkosuo

67'▲M. Ylitolva←▼J. Talvitie

80'▲R. Jansson←▼N. Pyyhtiä

86'▲A. Sadiku←▼O. Liimatta

86'▲A. Markhiev←▼L. Walta

Finland U21 substitutes

22Ylitolva2Jansson9Sadiku8Markhiev13Kallinen19Mömmö10Meriluoto11Salomaa12Schulz