Romania U19 W 0–1 Sweden U18 W: Result & Stats

Romania U19 W

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sweden U18 W

M. Josefsson 13'

10/25/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Romania U19 W29%

×Draw25%

Sweden U18 W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Romania U19 WExpected goals in this matchSweden U18 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.52

Romania U19 W

1.15

Sweden U18 W

1.52

Sweden U18 W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

0.50

creates per match

0.80

2.25

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Romania U19 W

0.50

Sweden U18 W

0.80

allows per match

Romania U19 W

2.25

Sweden U18 W

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania U19 W+0.00on par

Sweden U18 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania U19 W ↓

Sweden U18 W →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Romania U19 W or draw

54%

Romania U19 W or Sweden U18 W

75%

Draw or Sweden U18 W

71%

Winning margin

Romania U19 W wins by 2+

11%

Sweden U18 W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Romania U19 W 1+ goals

68%

Romania U19 W 2+ goals

32%

Romania U19 W 3+ goals

11%

Sweden U18 W 1+ goals

78%

Sweden U18 W 2+ goals

45%

Sweden U18 W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Romania U19 W (draw refunded)

39%

Sweden U18 W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Romania U19 W at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Sweden U18 W away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Romania U19 W attack 0.50 + Sweden U18 W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sweden U18 W attack 0.80 + Romania U19 W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Romania U19 W scores more

29%

level

25%

Sweden U18 W scores more

46%

Sweden U18 W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sweden U18 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Josefsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff