Romania U19 0–0 Lithuania U19: Result & Stats

Romania U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lithuania U19

9/24/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Romania U1970%

×Draw18%

Lithuania U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Romania U19Expected goals in this matchLithuania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.89

Romania U19

2.37

Lithuania U19

0.89

Romania U19 creates 166% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

2.88

creates per match

0.77

1.00

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Romania U19

2.88

Lithuania U19

0.77

allows per match

Romania U19

1.00

Lithuania U19

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania U19+0.00on par

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Romania U19 or draw

87%

Romania U19 or Lithuania U19

82%

Draw or Lithuania U19

30%

Winning margin

Romania U19 wins by 2+

47%

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Romania U19 1+ goals

91%

Romania U19 2+ goals

68%

Romania U19 3+ goals

42%

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

59%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

22%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Romania U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania U19 at home — creates 2.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania U19 attack 2.88 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.37

Lithuania U19 attack 0.77 + Romania U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Romania U19 scores more

70%

level

18%

Lithuania U19 scores more

13%

Romania U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Romania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

F. Steponavicius

46'

D. Sala← C. Vulturar

46'

D. Šluta← M. Džiugas

46'

M. Perveinis← K. Bička

54'

S. Borza

57'

A. Grigore-Huides

61'

A. Muși← E. Rădăslăvescu

61'

A. Trică← O. El Sawy

62'

A. Bordusanu

80'

D. Bujor← A. Borduşanu

87'

G. Leață← R. Burnete

89'

N. Luksys

90+5'

D. Sluta

90+3'

M. Skirmantas← N. Lukšys

Romania

Lithuania

12

4

2

3

10

16

▼

Džiugas

7

▼

Bička

23

Andriuške

8

Gineitis

11

▼

19

1

2

13

3

17

8

▼

Vulturar

10

▼

Rădăslăve

7

▼

Borduşanu

6

Boțogan

20

▼

Sawy

9

▼

Burnete

Manager: A. Pelici

46'▲D. Sala←▼C. Vulturar

61'▲A. Muși←▼E. Rădăslăvescu

61'▲A. Trică←▼O. El Sawy

80'▲D. Bujor←▼A. Borduşanu

87'▲G. Leață←▼R. Burnete

Romania U19 substitutes

18Sala11Muși21Trică15Bujor16Leață4Șuteu14Kovács5Paşcalău12Lefter

Manager: T. Ražanauskas

46'▲D. Šluta←▼M. Džiugas

46'▲M. Perveinis←▼K. Bička

90+3'▲M. Skirmantas←▼N. Lukšys

Lithuania U19 substitutes

6Šluta9Perveinis20Skirmantas18Stankevičius15Ževžikovas17Kaušinis5Paliušis13Nainys1Kiriejevas

Match Recap: Romania U19 vs Lithuania U19

Romania U19 and Lithuania U19 drew 0-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Anghel Iordănescu in Voluntari.

Romania U19 vs Lithuania U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Romania U19 vs Lithuania U19