Romania U19 2–4 France U19: Result & Stats

Romania U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

France U19

A. Trică 77'

R. Pop 30'

E. Ben Seghir 81' (pen)

D. Doué 43'

M. Efekele 15'

E. Diop 13'

3/28/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Stade de la Source

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Romania U1954%

×Draw21%

France U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Romania U19Expected goals in this matchFrance U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.38

Romania U19

2.10

France U19

1.38

Romania U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

2.88

creates per match

1.75

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Romania U19

2.88

France U19

1.75

allows per match

Romania U19

1.00

France U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania U19+0.00on par

France U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania U19 ↓

France U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Romania U19 or draw

75%

Romania U19 or France U19

79%

Draw or France U19

46%

Winning margin

Romania U19 wins by 2+

32%

France U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Romania U19 1+ goals

88%

Romania U19 2+ goals

62%

Romania U19 3+ goals

35%

France U19 1+ goals

75%

France U19 2+ goals

40%

France U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Romania U19 (draw refunded)

68%

France U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania U19 at home — creates 2.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

France U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania U19 attack 2.88 + France U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.10

France U19 attack 1.75 + Romania U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Romania U19 scores more

54%

level

21%

France U19 scores more

25%

Romania U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Romania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

15'

30'

43'

46'

64'

64'

64'

E. Rădăslăvescu← V. Martinovic

69'

S. Kumbedi← E. Diop

76'

L. Ugochukwu← A. Kari

77'

A. Trică

81'

E. Ben SeghirPenalty

82'

M. Kovács← R. Pop

85'

A. Botogan

90+2'

K. Ouattara← E. Ben Seghir

90+2'

W. Odobert← V. Muntu Wa Mungu

Romania

France

1

Risser

2

Koudou

5

Hannach

3

▼

Mungu

18

Yoro

15

⚽

Doué

14

▼

Kari

17

Zaïre-Eme

20

⚽

▼

Seghir

10

⚽

▼

Diop

19

⚽

1

2

13

15

▼

Martinovi

3

Grigore-H

8

▼

Vulturar

5

Paşcalău

6

Boțogan

16

⚽

▼

Pop

9

▼

Burnete

11

▼

Mazilu

Manager: A. Pelici

46'▲D. Sala←▼C. Vulturar

64'▲A. Musi←▼A. Mazilu

64'▲A. Trică←▼R. Burnete

64'▲E. Rădăslăvescu←▼V. Martinovic

82'▲M. Kovács←▼R. Pop

Romania U19 substitutes

18Sala7Musi21Trică10Rădăslăvescu14Kovács4Sălceanu17Duțu12Lefter

Manager: L. Rouxel

69'▲S. Kumbedi←▼E. Diop

76'▲L. Ugochukwu←▼A. Kari

90+2'▲K. Ouattara←▼E. Ben Seghir

90+2'▲W. Odobert←▼V. Muntu Wa Mungu

France U19 substitutes

12Kumbedi8Ugochukwu13Ouattara11Odobert16Patouillet

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Romania U19 2–4 France U19

France U19 beat Romania U19 4-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 28, 2023.

Goals: E. Diop (13'), M. Efekele (15'), R. Pop (30'), D. Doué (43'), A. Trică (77'), E. Ben Seghir (81' pen).

The match was played at Stade de la Source in Orléans.

Romania U19 vs France U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Romania U19 2–4 France U19