Romania U19 1–1 Finland U19: Result & Stats

Romania U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Finland U19

F. Gaspar 21'

R. Vikstrom 73'

11/15/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Romania U1955%

×Draw21%

Finland U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Romania U19Expected goals in this matchFinland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.28

Romania U19

2.06

Finland U19

1.28

Romania U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

2.88

creates per match

1.56

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Romania U19

2.88

Finland U19

1.56

allows per match

Romania U19

1.00

Finland U19

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania U19+0.00on par

Finland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania U19 ↓

Finland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Romania U19 or draw

76%

Romania U19 or Finland U19

79%

Draw or Finland U19

45%

Winning margin

Romania U19 wins by 2+

33%

Finland U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Romania U19 1+ goals

87%

Romania U19 2+ goals

61%

Romania U19 3+ goals

34%

Finland U19 1+ goals

72%

Finland U19 2+ goals

37%

Finland U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Romania U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania U19 at home — creates 2.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Finland U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania U19 attack 2.88 + Finland U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.06

Finland U19 attack 1.56 + Romania U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Romania U19 scores more

55%

level

21%

Finland U19 scores more

24%

Romania U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Romania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

F. Gaspar

59'

Y. Pirvu

60'

R. Stanciu← A. Stoian

63'

O. Tiitinen← O. Multala

64'

T. Tomsa

66'

E. Bodo← M. Toma

73'

R. Vikstrom

76'

T. Mero← T. Koukkumaki

77'

A. Techeres← F. Gaspar

77'

A. Toroc← Y. Pirvu

77'

R. Necsulescu← T. Tomsa

88'

V. Kumpu

Romania

Finland

12

17

15

4

2

8

▼

18

22

11

10

⚽

Vikstrom

21

▼

Koukkumak

1

Ungureanu

2

⚽

▼

15

4

13

19

▼

Tomsa

16

Veres

11

▼

Pirvu

8

Petculesc

9

▼

Stoian

10

▼

Toma

Manager: Pavel-Adrian Dulcea

60'▲R. Stanciu←▼A. Stoian

66'▲E. Bodo←▼M. Toma

77'▲A. Techeres←▼F. Gaspar

77'▲A. Toroc←▼Y. Pirvu

77'▲R. Necsulescu←▼T. Tomsa

Romania U19 substitutes

12Racasan3Techeres5Moisa6Bodo7Stanciu14Cotor17Chirila18Toroc20Necsulescu

Manager: P. Lundberg

63'▲O. Tiitinen←▼O. Multala

76'▲T. Mero←▼T. Koukkumaki

Finland U19 substitutes

1Happonen3Konttas6Machaal7Katz9Ketola13Tikkanen19Mero20Tiitinen

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Romania U19 1–1 Finland U19

Romania U19 and Finland U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2025.

Goals: F. Gaspar (21'), R. Vikstrom (73').

Romania U19 vs Finland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Romania U19 1–1 Finland U19