Romania U19 4–1 Andorra U19: Result & Stats

Romania U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Andorra U19

S. Senciuc 83'

T. Tomsa 62', 58'

M. Toma 47'

C. G. Garcia 69'

11/12/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Romania U1978%

×Draw14%

Andorra U198%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Romania U19Expected goals in this matchAndorra U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

0.67

Romania U19

2.56

Andorra U19

0.67

Romania U19 creates 282% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

2.88

creates per match

0.33

1.00

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Romania U19

2.88

Andorra U19

0.33

allows per match

Romania U19

1.00

Andorra U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania U19+0.00on par

Andorra U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania U19 ↓

Andorra U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Romania U19 or draw

92%

Romania U19 or Andorra U19

86%

Draw or Andorra U19

22%

Winning margin

Romania U19 wins by 2+

56%

Andorra U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Romania U19 1+ goals

92%

Romania U19 2+ goals

72%

Romania U19 3+ goals

46%

Andorra U19 1+ goals

49%

Andorra U19 2+ goals

15%

Andorra U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Romania U19 (draw refunded)

91%

Andorra U19 (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania U19 at home — creates 2.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Andorra U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania U19 attack 2.88 + Andorra U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.56

Andorra U19 attack 0.33 + Romania U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Romania U19 scores more

78%

level

14%

Andorra U19 scores more

8%

Romania U19 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Romania U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

R. Necsulescu← A. Toroc

47'

M. Toma

54'

P. Miranda

58'

T. Tomsa

61'

C. G. Garcia← S. Moreno

62'

T. Tomsa

64'

Y. Santaella

65'

R. Petculescu← M. Toma

65'

R. Veres← T. Tomsa

69'

C. G. Garcia

74'

S. Senciuc← A. Techeres

74'

S. Fernandes← D. De Lima

74'

J. Moutinho← P. Miranda

83'

S. Senciuc

84'

R. Stanciu← A. Stoian

84'

M. Anglada← C. Garcia

84'

P. Masafret← Y. Santaella

Romania

Andorra

1

Aroca

5

Juanfran

4

▼

Miranda

3

Vieira

2

▼

Garcia

7

Bisbal

6

Simonet

20

▼

Lima

10

▼

Santaella

9

Rodriguez

22

▼

1

2

15

4

3

▼

Techeres

19

⚽2

▼

Tomsa

6

Bodo

11

Pirvu

18

▼

Toroc

9

▼

Stoian

10

⚽

▼

Toma

Manager: Pavel-Adrian Dulcea

46'▲R. Necsulescu←▼A. Toroc

65'▲R. Petculescu←▼M. Toma

65'▲R. Veres←▼T. Tomsa

74'▲S. Senciuc←▼A. Techeres

84'▲R. Stanciu←▼A. Stoian

Romania U19 substitutes

12Racasan5Moisa7Stanciu8Petculescu13Senciuc14Cotor16Veres17Chirila20Necsulescu

Manager: Óscar Sonejee

61'▲C. G. Garcia←▼S. Moreno

74'▲S. Fernandes←▼D. De Lima

74'▲J. Moutinho←▼P. Miranda

84'▲M. Anglada←▼C. Garcia

84'▲P. Masafret←▼Y. Santaella

Andorra U19 substitutes

13Fernandez8Gracia11Fernandes14Torres15Moutinho16Anglada18Masafret19Garcia23Almeida

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Romania U19 4–1 Andorra U19

Romania U19 beat Andorra U19 4-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 12, 2025.

Goals: M. Toma (47'), T. Tomsa (58', 62'), C. G. Garcia (69'), S. Senciuc (83').

Romania U19 vs Andorra U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Romania U19 4–1 Andorra U19