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Romania U18 vs North Macedonia U18 — Friendlies 2026

Romania U18
Romania U18
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
North Macedonia U18
North Macedonia U18
M. Tudose 77'
A. Siman 46'
V. Stancovici 45+1' (pen)
6/18/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Romania U1862%
×Draw21%
North Macedonia U1817%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Romania U18
2.00
North Macedonia U18
0.92

Romania U18 creates 117% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Romania U18
2.00
North Macedonia U18
0.50

allows per match

Romania U18
1.33
North Macedonia U18
2.00

finishing

Romania U18+0.00on par
North Macedonia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania U18 ↓

North Macedonia U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Romania U18 or draw
83%
Romania U18 or North Macedonia U18
79%
Draw or North Macedonia U18
38%

Winning margin

Romania U18 wins by 2+
38%
North Macedonia U18 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Romania U18 1+ goals
86%
Romania U18 2+ goals
59%
Romania U18 3+ goals
32%
North Macedonia U18 1+ goals
60%
North Macedonia U18 2+ goals
23%
North Macedonia U18 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Romania U18 (draw refunded)
79%
North Macedonia U18 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania U18 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

North Macedonia U18 away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania U18 attack 2.00 + North Macedonia U18 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

North Macedonia U18 attack 0.50 + Romania U18 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Romania U18 scores more
62%
level
21%
North Macedonia U18 scores more
17%

Romania U18 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Romania U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
V. StancoviciPenalty
46'
N. Manojlov← N. Manojlov
46'
D. Danev← D. Danev
46'
D. Markovski← D. Markovski
46'
V. Stancovici← L. P. Manolache
46'
G. Gogescu← G. Gogescu
46'
V. Rafaila← M. Becze
46'
A. Siman
58'
M. Tanasa← M. Tanasa
58'
S. Moraru← I. Raducan
58'
A. Calin← A. Calin
58'
F. Cibi← P. Dulcea
61'
A. Dimeski← A. Dimeski
69'
D. Miholov← D. Miholov
70'
M. Tudose← M. Tudose
70'
D. Dragu← D. Dragu
77'
M. Tudose
79'
L. Vlasceanu← L. Vlasceanu
79'
R. Badescu← M. Dutu
83'
Z. Nazifi← A. Bogdanoski
83'
G. Ristovski← G. Ristovski
83'
A. Petejchuk← A. Petejchuk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Romania U18 3–0 North Macedonia U18

Romania U18 beat North Macedonia U18 3-0 in Friendlies on June 18, 2023.

Goals: V. Stancovici (45+1' pen), A. Siman (46'), M. Tudose (77').