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Romana vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Romana
Romana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
A. Cali 51', 8'
F. Barlafante 21'
12/10/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 15Academy Sport Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Romana40%
×Draw26%
Ostia Mare34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Romana
1.43
Ostia Mare
1.30

Romana creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 48 away

creates per match

Romana
1.71
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Romana
1.00
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Romana+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romana ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Romana or draw
66%
Romana or Ostia Mare
74%
Draw or Ostia Mare
60%

Winning margin

Romana wins by 2+
19%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Romana 1+ goals
76%
Romana 2+ goals
42%
Romana 3+ goals
17%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
73%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
37%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Romana (draw refunded)
54%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romana at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romana attack 1.71 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Romana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Romana scores more
40%
level
26%
Ostia Mare scores more
34%

Romana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Romana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Cali
21'
F. Barlafante
51'
A. Cali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Romana 2–1 Ostia Mare

Romana beat Ostia Mare 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 10, 2023.

Goals: A. Cali (8', 51'), F. Barlafante (21').

The match was played at Academy Sport Center in Roma.