Romana 1–0 Latte Dolce: Result & Stats

Romana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Latte Dolce

10/31/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 9Academy Sport Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Romana51%

×Draw25%

Latte Dolce24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomanaExpected goals in this matchLatte Dolce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.05

Romana

1.65

Latte Dolce

1.05

Romana creates 57% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

1.71

creates per match

1.10

1.00

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Romana

1.71

Latte Dolce

1.10

allows per match

Romana

1.00

Latte Dolce

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romana+0.00on par

Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romana ↓

Latte Dolce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Romana or draw

76%

Romana or Latte Dolce

75%

Draw or Latte Dolce

49%

Winning margin

Romana wins by 2+

27%

Latte Dolce wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Romana 1+ goals

81%

Romana 2+ goals

49%

Romana 3+ goals

23%

Latte Dolce 1+ goals

65%

Latte Dolce 2+ goals

28%

Latte Dolce 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Romana (draw refunded)

68%

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romana at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romana attack 1.71 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Romana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Romana scores more

51%

level

25%

Latte Dolce scores more

24%

Romana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Romana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff