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Romana vs Flaminia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Romana
Romana
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Flaminia
Flaminia
4/14/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 31Academy Sport Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Romana41%
×Draw25%
Flaminia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Romana
1.48
Flaminia
1.32

Romana creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Romana
1.71
Flaminia
1.65

allows per match

Romana
1.00
Flaminia
1.24

finishing

Romana+0.00on par
Flaminia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romana ↓

Flaminia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Romana or draw
66%
Romana or Flaminia
75%
Draw or Flaminia
59%

Winning margin

Romana wins by 2+
20%
Flaminia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Romana 1+ goals
77%
Romana 2+ goals
43%
Romana 3+ goals
19%
Flaminia 1+ goals
73%
Flaminia 2+ goals
38%
Flaminia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Romana (draw refunded)
55%
Flaminia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romana at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Flaminia away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romana attack 1.71 + Flaminia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Flaminia attack 1.65 + Romana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Romana scores more
41%
level
25%
Flaminia scores more
34%

Romana at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Romana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Romana 1–1 Flaminia

Romana and Flaminia drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Academy Sport Center in Roma.