Romana 2–1 Boreale: Result & Stats

Romana

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Boreale

1/21/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 20Academy Sport Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Romana56%

×Draw25%

Boreale19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomanaExpected goals in this matchBoreale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.79

Romana

1.56

Boreale

0.79

Romana creates 97% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.71

creates per match

0.59

1.00

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Romana

1.71

Boreale

0.59

allows per match

Romana

1.00

Boreale

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romana+0.00on par

Boreale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romana ↓

Boreale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Romana or draw

81%

Romana or Boreale

75%

Draw or Boreale

44%

Winning margin

Romana wins by 2+

29%

Boreale wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Romana 1+ goals

79%

Romana 2+ goals

46%

Romana 3+ goals

21%

Boreale 1+ goals

55%

Boreale 2+ goals

19%

Boreale 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Romana (draw refunded)

75%

Boreale (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romana at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Boreale away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romana attack 1.71 + Boreale defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Boreale attack 0.59 + Romana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Romana scores more

56%

level

25%

Boreale scores more

19%

Romana at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Romana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff