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Romana vs Anzio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Romana
Romana
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Anzio
Anzio
10/1/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 4Academy Sport Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Romana49%
×Draw25%
Anzio26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Romana
1.57
Anzio
1.07

Romana creates 47% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Romana
1.71
Anzio
1.14

allows per match

Romana
1.00
Anzio
1.43

finishing

Romana+0.00on par
Anzio+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romana ↓

Anzio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Romana or draw
74%
Romana or Anzio
75%
Draw or Anzio
51%

Winning margin

Romana wins by 2+
25%
Anzio wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Romana 1+ goals
79%
Romana 2+ goals
46%
Romana 3+ goals
21%
Anzio 1+ goals
66%
Anzio 2+ goals
29%
Anzio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Romana (draw refunded)
65%
Anzio (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romana at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Anzio away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romana attack 1.71 + Anzio defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Anzio attack 1.14 + Romana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Romana scores more
49%
level
25%
Anzio scores more
26%

Romana at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Romana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Romana 1–0 Anzio

Romana beat Anzio 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Academy Sport Center in Roma.