Roma U20 3–0 Sampdoria U20: Result & Stats

Roma U20

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sampdoria U20

12/18/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 16Stadio Tre Fontane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Roma U2058%

×Draw23%

Sampdoria U2019%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roma U20Expected goals in this matchSampdoria U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.96

Roma U20

1.85

Sampdoria U20

0.96

Roma U20 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 19 away

1.65

creates per match

0.95

0.97

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Roma U20

1.65

Sampdoria U20

0.95

allows per match

Roma U20

0.97

Sampdoria U20

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roma U20+0.00on par

Sampdoria U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U20 ↓

Sampdoria U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Roma U20 or draw

81%

Roma U20 or Sampdoria U20

77%

Draw or Sampdoria U20

42%

Winning margin

Roma U20 wins by 2+

34%

Sampdoria U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Roma U20 1+ goals

84%

Roma U20 2+ goals

55%

Roma U20 3+ goals

28%

Sampdoria U20 1+ goals

62%

Sampdoria U20 2+ goals

25%

Sampdoria U20 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Roma U20 (draw refunded)

75%

Sampdoria U20 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

Sampdoria U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U20 attack 1.65 + Sampdoria U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sampdoria U20 attack 0.95 + Roma U20 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Roma U20 scores more

58%

level

23%

Sampdoria U20 scores more

19%

Roma U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Roma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff