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Roma U20 vs Lecce U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Roma U20
Roma U20
Preview
09:00
Lecce U20
Lecce U20
5/1/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 35
48%
Roma U20
model favours
48%24%28%

Lecce U20 raise their game against the top half — 39% wins vs the upper half, only 29% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Roma U2048%
×Draw24%
Lecce U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roma U20
1.68
Lecce U20
1.22

Roma U20 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 38 away

creates per match

Roma U20
1.65
Lecce U20
1.47

allows per match

Roma U20
0.97
Lecce U20
1.71

finishing

Roma U20+0.00on par
Lecce U20+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U20 ↓

Lecce U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Roma U20 or draw
72%
Roma U20 or Lecce U20
76%
Draw or Lecce U20
52%

Winning margin

Roma U20 wins by 2+
25%
Lecce U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Roma U20 1+ goals
81%
Roma U20 2+ goals
50%
Roma U20 3+ goals
24%
Lecce U20 1+ goals
70%
Lecce U20 2+ goals
34%
Lecce U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Roma U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Lecce U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

Lecce U20 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U20 attack 1.65 + Lecce U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lecce U20 attack 1.47 + Roma U20 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Roma U20 scores more
48%
level
24%
Lecce U20 scores more
28%

Roma U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Roma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Roma U20 win just 36% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LWDWD
U20
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Roma U20 vs Lecce U20 — Match Preview

Roma U20 face Lecce U20 on May 1, 2027 in this Campionato Primavera - 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.