Roma U20 1–1 Lecce U20: Result & Stats

Roma U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lecce U20

10/5/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 7Stadio Tre Fontane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Roma U2048%

×Draw24%

Lecce U2028%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roma U20Expected goals in this matchLecce U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.22

Roma U20

1.68

Lecce U20

1.22

Roma U20 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 38 away

1.65

creates per match

1.47

0.97

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Roma U20

1.65

Lecce U20

1.47

allows per match

Roma U20

0.97

Lecce U20

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roma U20+0.00on par

Lecce U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U20 ↓

Lecce U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Roma U20 or draw

72%

Roma U20 or Lecce U20

76%

Draw or Lecce U20

52%

Winning margin

Roma U20 wins by 2+

25%

Lecce U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Roma U20 1+ goals

81%

Roma U20 2+ goals

50%

Roma U20 3+ goals

24%

Lecce U20 1+ goals

70%

Lecce U20 2+ goals

34%

Lecce U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Roma U20 (draw refunded)

63%

Lecce U20 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

Lecce U20 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U20 attack 1.65 + Lecce U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lecce U20 attack 1.47 + Roma U20 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Roma U20 scores more

48%

level

24%

Lecce U20 scores more

28%

Roma U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Roma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff