Roma U20 1–1 Internazionale U20: Result & Stats

Roma U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Internazionale U20

11/9/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 11Stadio Tre Fontane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Roma U2042%

×Draw25%

Internazionale U2032%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roma U20Expected goals in this matchInternazionale U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.26

Roma U20

1.48

Internazionale U20

1.26

Roma U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

1.65

creates per match

1.55

0.97

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Roma U20

1.65

Internazionale U20

1.55

allows per match

Roma U20

0.97

Internazionale U20

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roma U20+0.00on par

Internazionale U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U20 ↓

Internazionale U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Roma U20 or draw

68%

Roma U20 or Internazionale U20

75%

Draw or Internazionale U20

58%

Winning margin

Roma U20 wins by 2+

21%

Internazionale U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Roma U20 1+ goals

77%

Roma U20 2+ goals

43%

Roma U20 3+ goals

19%

Internazionale U20 1+ goals

72%

Internazionale U20 2+ goals

36%

Internazionale U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Roma U20 (draw refunded)

57%

Internazionale U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

Internazionale U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U20 attack 1.65 + Internazionale U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Internazionale U20 attack 1.55 + Roma U20 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Roma U20 scores more

42%

level

25%

Internazionale U20 scores more

32%

Roma U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Roma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff