Roma U20 2–1 Cremonese U20: Result & Stats

Roma U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cremonese U20

3/3/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 28Stadio Tre Fontane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Roma U2052%

×Draw25%

Cremonese U2023%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roma U20Expected goals in this matchCremonese U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.00

Roma U20

1.63

Cremonese U20

1.00

Roma U20 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 38 away

1.65

creates per match

1.03

0.97

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Roma U20

1.65

Cremonese U20

1.03

allows per match

Roma U20

0.97

Cremonese U20

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roma U20+0.00on par

Cremonese U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U20 ↓

Cremonese U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Roma U20 or draw

77%

Roma U20 or Cremonese U20

75%

Draw or Cremonese U20

48%

Winning margin

Roma U20 wins by 2+

28%

Cremonese U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Roma U20 1+ goals

80%

Roma U20 2+ goals

48%

Roma U20 3+ goals

22%

Cremonese U20 1+ goals

63%

Cremonese U20 2+ goals

26%

Cremonese U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Roma U20 (draw refunded)

69%

Cremonese U20 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

Cremonese U20 away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U20 attack 1.65 + Cremonese U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.63

Cremonese U20 attack 1.03 + Roma U20 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Roma U20 scores more

52%

level

25%

Cremonese U20 scores more

23%

Roma U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Roma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff