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Roma U20 vs Bologna U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Roma U20
Roma U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bologna U20
Bologna U20advanced
5/21/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Quarter-finalsCurva Fiesole - Viola Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Roma U2045%
×Draw27%
Bologna U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roma U20
1.38
Bologna U20
1.04

Roma U20 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

creates per match

Roma U20
1.65
Bologna U20
1.10

allows per match

Roma U20
0.97
Bologna U20
1.10

finishing

Roma U20+0.00on par
Bologna U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U20 ↓

Bologna U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Roma U20 or draw
72%
Roma U20 or Bologna U20
73%
Draw or Bologna U20
55%

Winning margin

Roma U20 wins by 2+
21%
Bologna U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Roma U20 1+ goals
75%
Roma U20 2+ goals
40%
Roma U20 3+ goals
16%
Bologna U20 1+ goals
65%
Bologna U20 2+ goals
28%
Bologna U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Roma U20 (draw refunded)
61%
Bologna U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

Bologna U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U20 attack 1.65 + Bologna U20 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bologna U20 attack 1.10 + Roma U20 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Roma U20 scores more
45%
level
27%
Bologna U20 scores more
28%

Roma U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Roma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roma U20 vs Bologna U20

Bologna U20 beat Roma U20 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on May 21, 2026.

The match was played at Curva Fiesole - Viola Park in Bagno a Ripoli.