Roma U20 0–1 Atalanta U20: Result & Stats

Roma U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atalanta U20

D. Bono 4'

8/24/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 2Stadio Tre Fontane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Roma U2046%

×Draw25%

Atalanta U2029%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roma U20Expected goals in this matchAtalanta U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.17

Roma U20

1.56

Atalanta U20

1.17

Roma U20 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 38 away

1.65

creates per match

1.37

0.97

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Roma U20

1.65

Atalanta U20

1.37

allows per match

Roma U20

0.97

Atalanta U20

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roma U20+0.00on par

Atalanta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U20 ↓

Atalanta U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Roma U20 or draw

71%

Roma U20 or Atalanta U20

75%

Draw or Atalanta U20

54%

Winning margin

Roma U20 wins by 2+

24%

Atalanta U20 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Roma U20 1+ goals

79%

Roma U20 2+ goals

46%

Roma U20 3+ goals

21%

Atalanta U20 1+ goals

69%

Atalanta U20 2+ goals

33%

Atalanta U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Roma U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

Atalanta U20 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U20 attack 1.65 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.56

Atalanta U20 attack 1.37 + Roma U20 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Roma U20 scores more

46%

level

25%

Atalanta U20 scores more

29%

Roma U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Roma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. Seck

4'

D. Bono

37'

A. Romano

40'

M. Aliprandi

44'

D. Cakolli

44'

M. Maffessoli

46'

M. Scacchi← M. Scacchi

46'

M. Aliprandi← M. Aliprandi

54'

G. Ruiz

59'

A. Romano← A. Romano

59'

M. Seck← M. Seck

64'

N. Baldo← N. Baldo

66'

G. Ramaj

72'

E. Lulli

80'

M. Della Rocca← M. Della Rocca

80'

D. Cakolli← D. Cakolli

80'

D. Bono← D. Bono

86'

R. Zinni

87'

A. Sugamele← E. Lulli

Roma

Atalanta

12

2

3

6

15

5

16

8

7

10

Nicolo

91

15

28

13

22

10

25

6

19

18

9

Manager: G. Falsini

46'▲—←▼M. Scacchi

59'▲—←▼A. Romano

59'▲—←▼M. Seck

80'▲—←▼M. Della Rocca

87'▲A. Sugamele←▼E. Lulli

Roma U20 substitutes

60Alessandro16Giacomo4Mohamed5Gianmarco7Mattia1Giorgio33Samuele27Emanuele21Manuel17Samuele2Tommaso

Manager: G. Bosi

46'▲—←▼M. Aliprandi

64'▲—←▼N. Baldo

80'▲—←▼D. Cakolli

80'▲—←▼D. Bono

Atalanta U20 substitutes

9Dion21Davide29Mattia11Nicolo19Vincenzo55Max14Alessandro22Alessandro13Alessandro32Samir

Match Recap: Roma U20 vs Atalanta U20

Atalanta U20 beat Roma U20 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on August 24, 2025.

Goals: D. Bono (4').

The match was played at Stadio Tre Fontane in Roma.

Roma U20 vs Atalanta U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Roma U20 vs Atalanta U20