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Roma U19 vs Juventus U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Roma U19
Roma U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Juventus U19
Juventus U19
11/5/2023Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 9Centro Sportivo Fulvio Bernardini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Roma U1952%
×Draw23%
Juventus U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roma U19
1.83
Juventus U19
1.22

Roma U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

creates per match

Roma U19
2.10
Juventus U19
1.38

allows per match

Roma U19
1.06
Juventus U19
1.55

finishing

Roma U19+0.00on par
Juventus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U19 ↓

Juventus U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Roma U19 or draw
75%
Roma U19 or Juventus U19
77%
Draw or Juventus U19
48%

Winning margin

Roma U19 wins by 2+
29%
Juventus U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Roma U19 1+ goals
84%
Roma U19 2+ goals
54%
Roma U19 3+ goals
28%
Juventus U19 1+ goals
70%
Juventus U19 2+ goals
34%
Juventus U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Roma U19 (draw refunded)
67%
Juventus U19 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Juventus U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.55 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U19 attack 2.10 + Juventus U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.83

Juventus U19 attack 1.38 + Roma U19 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Roma U19 scores more
52%
level
23%
Juventus U19 scores more
25%

Roma U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Roma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roma U19 vs Juventus U19

Juventus U19 beat Roma U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Fulvio Bernardini in Trigoria Alta.