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Roma U19 vs Cesena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Roma U19
Roma U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cesena U19
Cesena U19
2/10/2023Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 18Stadio Tre Fontane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Roma U1971%
×Draw16%
Cesena U1913%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roma U19
2.67
Cesena U19
1.06

Roma U19 creates 152% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Roma U19
2.10
Cesena U19
1.06

allows per match

Roma U19
1.06
Cesena U19
3.24

finishing

Roma U19+0.00on par
Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Roma U19 or draw
87%
Roma U19 or Cesena U19
84%
Draw or Cesena U19
29%

Winning margin

Roma U19 wins by 2+
50%
Cesena U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Roma U19 1+ goals
93%
Roma U19 2+ goals
74%
Roma U19 3+ goals
49%
Cesena U19 1+ goals
65%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
29%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Roma U19 (draw refunded)
85%
Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U19 attack 2.10 + Cesena U19 defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.67

Cesena U19 attack 1.06 + Roma U19 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Roma U19 scores more
71%
level
16%
Cesena U19 scores more
13%

Roma U19 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Roma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Roma U19 2–1 Cesena U19

Roma U19 beat Cesena U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on February 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Tre Fontane in Roma.