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Rolândia U20 vs Iraty U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Rolândia U20
Rolândia U20
FT
3 – 1
Iraty U20
Iraty U20
5/3/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 8Estádio Municipal José Aparecido de Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rolândia U2067%
×Draw17%
Iraty U2016%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rolândia U20
2.63
Iraty U20
1.23

Rolândia U20 creates 114% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Rolândia U20
2.00
Iraty U20
1.25

allows per match

Rolândia U20
1.20
Iraty U20
3.25

finishing

Rolândia U20+0.00on par
Iraty U20+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rolândia U20 ↓

Iraty U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Rolândia U20 or draw
84%
Rolândia U20 or Iraty U20
83%
Draw or Iraty U20
33%

Winning margin

Rolândia U20 wins by 2+
45%
Iraty U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rolândia U20 1+ goals
93%
Rolândia U20 2+ goals
73%
Rolândia U20 3+ goals
48%
Iraty U20 1+ goals
71%
Iraty U20 2+ goals
35%
Iraty U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rolândia U20 (draw refunded)
81%
Iraty U20 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rolândia U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Iraty U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rolândia U20 attack 2.00 + Iraty U20 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Iraty U20 attack 1.25 + Rolândia U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Rolândia U20 scores more
67%
level
17%
Iraty U20 scores more
16%

Rolândia U20 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rolândia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rolândia U20 vs Iraty U20

Rolândia U20 beat Iraty U20 3-1 in Paranaense U20 on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Aparecido de Moraes in Prado Ferreira, Paraná.