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Rolândia U20 vs Coritiba U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Rolândia U20
Rolândia U20
FT
1 – 1
Coritiba U20
Coritiba U20
3/23/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 2Estádio Municipal José Aparecido de Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rolândia U2042%
×Draw25%
Coritiba U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rolândia U20
1.48
Coritiba U20
1.27

Rolândia U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

creates per match

Rolândia U20
2.00
Coritiba U20
1.33

allows per match

Rolândia U20
1.20
Coritiba U20
0.95

finishing

Rolândia U20+0.00on par
Coritiba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rolândia U20 ↓

Coritiba U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rolândia U20 or draw
67%
Rolândia U20 or Coritiba U20
75%
Draw or Coritiba U20
58%

Winning margin

Rolândia U20 wins by 2+
20%
Coritiba U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rolândia U20 1+ goals
77%
Rolândia U20 2+ goals
43%
Rolândia U20 3+ goals
19%
Coritiba U20 1+ goals
72%
Coritiba U20 2+ goals
36%
Coritiba U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rolândia U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Coritiba U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rolândia U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Coritiba U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rolândia U20 attack 2.00 + Coritiba U20 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Coritiba U20 attack 1.33 + Rolândia U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rolândia U20 scores more
42%
level
25%
Coritiba U20 scores more
33%

Rolândia U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rolândia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rolândia U20 vs Coritiba U20

Rolândia U20 and Coritiba U20 drew 1-1 in Paranaense U20 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Aparecido de Moraes in Prado Ferreira, Paraná.