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Rolândia U20 vs Andraus Brasil U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Rolândia U20
Rolândia U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Andraus Brasil U20
Andraus Brasil U20
4/13/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 5Estádio Municipal José Aparecido de Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rolândia U2051%
×Draw23%
Andraus Brasil U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rolândia U20
1.80
Andraus Brasil U20
1.20

Rolândia U20 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Rolândia U20
2.00
Andraus Brasil U20
1.20

allows per match

Rolândia U20
1.20
Andraus Brasil U20
1.60

finishing

Rolândia U20+0.00on par
Andraus Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rolândia U20 ↓

Andraus Brasil U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rolândia U20 or draw
75%
Rolândia U20 or Andraus Brasil U20
77%
Draw or Andraus Brasil U20
49%

Winning margin

Rolândia U20 wins by 2+
28%
Andraus Brasil U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rolândia U20 1+ goals
83%
Rolândia U20 2+ goals
54%
Rolândia U20 3+ goals
27%
Andraus Brasil U20 1+ goals
70%
Andraus Brasil U20 2+ goals
34%
Andraus Brasil U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rolândia U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Andraus Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rolândia U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Andraus Brasil U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rolândia U20 attack 2.00 + Andraus Brasil U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Andraus Brasil U20 attack 1.20 + Rolândia U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rolândia U20 scores more
51%
level
23%
Andraus Brasil U20 scores more
25%

Rolândia U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rolândia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rolândia U20 vs Andraus Brasil U20

Rolândia U20 beat Andraus Brasil U20 4-1 in Paranaense U20 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Aparecido de Moraes in Prado Ferreira, Paraná.