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Rokycany vs Tatran Sedlčany — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Rokycany
Rokycany
FT
2 – 0
Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
11/9/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 14Stadion pod Husovými sady (Rokycany)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Rokycany67%
×Draw18%
Tatran Sedlčany16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rokycany
2.50
Tatran Sedlčany
1.14

Rokycany creates 119% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 28 away

creates per match

Rokycany
1.61
Tatran Sedlčany
1.11

allows per match

Rokycany
1.17
Tatran Sedlčany
3.39

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par
Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Tatran Sedlčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw
84%
Rokycany or Tatran Sedlčany
82%
Draw or Tatran Sedlčany
33%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+
45%
Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals
92%
Rokycany 2+ goals
71%
Rokycany 3+ goals
45%
Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
68%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
32%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)
81%
Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Tatran Sedlčany away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 2.50

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.11 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Rokycany scores more
67%
level
18%
Tatran Sedlčany scores more
16%

Rokycany at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rokycany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rokycany vs Tatran Sedlčany

Rokycany beat Tatran Sedlčany 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion pod Husovými sady (Rokycany).