Rokycany 1–0 Sokol Čížová: Result & Stats

Rokycany

FT

1 – 0

Sokol Čížová

8/9/2019

4. liga - Divizie A · Round 1Stadion pod Husovými sady (Rokycany)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rokycany54%

×Draw24%

Sokol Čížová21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RokycanyExpected goals in this matchSokol Čížová

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.94

Rokycany

1.66

Sokol Čížová

0.94

Rokycany creates 77% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 7 away

1.61

creates per match

0.71

1.17

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Rokycany

1.61

Sokol Čížová

0.71

allows per match

Rokycany

1.17

Sokol Čížová

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Sokol Čížová →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw

79%

Rokycany or Sokol Čížová

76%

Draw or Sokol Čížová

46%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+

29%

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals

81%

Rokycany 2+ goals

49%

Rokycany 3+ goals

23%

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals

61%

Sokol Čížová 2+ goals

24%

Sokol Čížová 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)

72%

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rokycany scores more

54%

level

24%

Sokol Čížová scores more

21%

Rokycany at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rokycany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff