Rokycany 0–0 Slavoj Mýto: Result & Stats

Rokycany

FT

0 – 0

Slavoj Mýto

8/27/2021

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 5Stadion pod Husovými sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rokycany60%

×Draw21%

Slavoj Mýto18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RokycanyExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Mýto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.99

Rokycany

1.98

Slavoj Mýto

0.99

Rokycany creates 100% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 22 away

1.61

creates per match

0.82

1.17

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Rokycany

1.61

Slavoj Mýto

0.82

allows per match

Rokycany

1.17

Slavoj Mýto

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par

Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Slavoj Mýto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw

82%

Rokycany or Slavoj Mýto

79%

Draw or Slavoj Mýto

40%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+

36%

Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals

86%

Rokycany 2+ goals

59%

Rokycany 3+ goals

31%

Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals

63%

Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals

26%

Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)

77%

Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Slavoj Mýto away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Slavoj Mýto defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.98

Slavoj Mýto attack 0.82 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rokycany scores more

60%

level

21%

Slavoj Mýto scores more

18%

Rokycany at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rokycany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff