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Rokycany vs Přeštice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Rokycany
Rokycany
CANC
14:00
Přeštice
Přeštice
3/27/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 17Stadion pod Husovými sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Rokycany22%
×Draw21%
Přeštice57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rokycany
1.24
Přeštice
2.10

Přeštice creates 69% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 23 away

creates per match

Rokycany
1.61
Přeštice
3.04

allows per match

Rokycany
1.17
Přeštice
0.87

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw
43%
Rokycany or Přeštice
79%
Draw or Přeštice
78%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+
9%
Přeštice wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals
71%
Rokycany 2+ goals
35%
Rokycany 3+ goals
13%
Přeštice 1+ goals
88%
Přeštice 2+ goals
62%
Přeštice 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)
28%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Přeštice away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Přeštice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.24

Přeštice attack 3.04 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rokycany scores more
22%
level
21%
Přeštice scores more
57%

Přeštice at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rokycany face Přeštice (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Rokycany hosting Přeštice. Match starts March 27, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rokycany host Přeštice at Stadion pod Husovými sady.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.